4 myths about mathematical probabilities

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It is only in the literature that one chance per million falls in nine cases out of ten. And in life, mathematics rules. Especially one of its sections is mathematical statistics and probability theory. However, the worst of all is for those who try to be guided by this science, using universal misconceptions about it. “Sooner or later, any event occurs.” Oh yeah. But there are nuances.
Myth 1. With every failure, the chances increase
For example: You are waiting for a bus, but the desired number does not appear. The thirteenth, twenty-first, and even rare 157 expresses come. You begin to think whether you need to take a taxi or go on foot, but you remain in place. Because the longer you wait, the less left, right?
Who's guilty? O. Bender is to blame, having driven Kise into the head, and at the same time to all of us, that “with every empty chair, our chances grow.” And he is right if Madame Petukhova must have hidden the treasures under the upholstery. If there is even the slightest doubt, the situation takes an unpleasant turn.
In fact: From the point of view of mathematics, if the probability of an event is less than 100% (and in life only such happen), then with each failure the probability of success decreases. That is, the longer you wait for the bus (looking for work, trying to get married or find a treasure), the less chance you have of getting what you want.
What to do? Use the first acceptable option. It will only get worse.

Myth 2. If the chances are 50 to 50, anyone can win
For example: You play roulette, betting only on red and black. The chances, of course, are slightly lower than half, because there is still zero, well, well, let's not complicate. Let it be "either won or lost", with equal chances. And you expect, if not to break the bank, then at least go to zero.
Who's guilty? Casino, of course. In their propaganda, they intentionally take into account only one parameter: the probability of winning in a single game. Threw the bones - got rich, wow! But no one throws dice only once. And no one takes into account another important variable: the amount of money each of the opponents has.
In fact: In a "harmless game" - one in which the chances of winning and losing in one separate round are equal - the one with the most money is guaranteed to win. That is, you can win by betting on red. You can even win several times in a row. But the longer you play, the closer your bankruptcy is.
What to do? In order to go away on average with your own, you need to play a game where the probability of winning is 67%, that is 2/3. There are no such games. Even the coolest blackjack strategies give a maximum of 53%. Play with people like you. Leave the casino to billionaires.
Myth 3. If you already got down to business, you need to bring it to a victorious end.
For example: You work as a junior salesperson (or deputy sales manager). Tear your ass in the hope of increasing. But all of it is not and is not. But you persist, do not go to another job, although there are vacancies. You expect that one day you will be promoted.
Who's guilty? The myth of corporate fidelity interspersed with primordial human conservatism. And also the hope already in vain.
In fact: As mentioned above, over time, the likelihood of an adverse outcome increases. That is, you need to know when to get off. Because investing without a result can be infinitely long.
What to do? Determine how much more time and effort you are ready to devote to this office. For example, another year. After that, start considering vacancies and do it a third of the term. In our case, it is four months. After four months, agree to the first offer, which will be better than any of the proposals. Unless, of course, you are not promoted during this time. And if the offer to increase will be the most profitable. If you want to know why this is so, type in the search engine “the task of choosing the greatest dowry”.
Myth 4. Going quietly - you will continue
For example: You open your own business. You need machines, computers, a secretary and other implements. However, you do not know if the case will burn out or everything will go to ashes. And, like a good boy, you begin to dig up and invest gradually. Choose, in general, the evolutionary path. In the hope, of course, that you will be so lucky.
Who's guilty? Our ancestors. And those who came up with the idea of ​​"quieter rides", and those who called the fearful philosophy of the serf peasant "folk wisdom."
In fact: A cautious approach reduces the chances of a favorable outcome fourfold compared to the risky approach of "putting everything at stake". That is, investing in the ruble is much less profitable from the point of view of probability theory than investing a million at once.
What to do? Throw all the troops into battle, in the forefront - the secretary. So you are much more likely to win a place in the sun.
 

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